On September 28, Bloomberg News reported that Canadian households are increasingly optimistic about the real-estate market. Sudbury, Ont. Measures taken by the federal government to tighten mortgage insurance criteria for new home buyers is expected to temper local rst-time buyer activity across the country in the short term, but is not expected to have a long-term impact in most regions. In re-contacting the respondents who lost confidence about their local housing market from the RE/MAX Global Outlook Report survey that was conducted in May 2020, asking if their confidence level in their market has changed since the start of the pandemic, 40 per cent are now as confident as they were before the pandemic. “Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained, and current market activity further exemplifies this. This trend is expected to continue into 2019, however rising interest rates and the stress test continue to make it difficult for prospective buyers in other Ontario communities, including Barrie, Oakville and Durham regions. 35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021, 45% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that move-up buyers will likely be a primary driver of the housing market demand in 2021, Half of Canadians (53%) are confident that Canada’s housing markets will remain steady in 2021, 52% of Canadians believe real estate will remain one of the best investment options in 2021, More than one-third (36 per cent) would prefer to work with realtors who use technology/virtual services to enhance the buying/selling process, 15 per cent of Canadians have spent more time researching/monitoring the real estate market during the first and second wave of the pandemic. RE/MAX FALL 2020 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2020 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2019 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2018 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2017 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report, Positive Signs in Local Real Estate Markets Across Saskatchewan, A Closer Look at the Trends Across the York Region Housing Market, Bank of Canada Makes Interest Rate Announcement, Toronto Real Estate Bubble? Despite the disruption of the virus, consumers are feeling optimistic, according to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, with 52 per cent of Canadians eyeing real estate as one of the best investment options in 2021, and expressing confidence that the Canadian housing market will remain steady next year. How Will the Newfoundland & Labrador Real Estate Market Fare? Thirty-one per cent of survey respondents said higher interest rates have not affected their ability to get an affordable mortgage so far, but the risk of future rate hikes, as indicated by RE/MAX brokers and agents, might affect these buyers in 2019. “Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. And that is on the heals of this year’s increase of 17.1%. The urban-to-suburban buyer interest in Ontario has impacted Toronto’s downtown core, specifically for condos, which is currently a buyer’s market. Supply levels throughout Toronto are continuing to drop and are not expected to improve in 2021, which will impact average home prices. Specific figures: The trend is expected to continue into 2018 as a mix of relative affordability for condo units and price appreciation for detached homes in recent years, combined with government policy changes in both markets, has helped push an influx of buyers toward condo ownership. The GTA’s condo market also saw price appreciation of 22 per cent in 2017, as the average sale price for a condo rose to an estimated $523,437, up from $429,241 in 2016. Lack of affordability in the single-detached segment will make it difficult for buyers wanting to enter the freehold market. The Canadian Real Estate Association’s most recent market forecast released in June projected the national average price would edge down 0.6 … Overall, brokers and agents in Western Canada say the potential buyers they are talking to are not too concerned with a potential second wave of COVID-19 impacting their real estate journey, and RE/MAX brokers are estimating steady activity to round out 2020. Mississauga, Ont. National home sales are forecast to rise by 7.5% to 518,100 units next year, with most of this increase reflecting a weak start to 2019 rather than a significant change in sales trends out to the end of next year.” 3 Canada’s federal housing agency has warned that average house prices could fall by up to 18 per cent over the next 12 months – a dismal prediction that’s being challenged by RE/MAX based on market activity from coast to coast. Ontario Real Estate Prices to See Double Digit Decline. Cities such as Ottawa and Hamilton-Burlington have seen a massive spike in demand for luxury homes since the start of the pandemic. Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market Forecast 2021. Average residential sale prices increased by six per cent year-over-year from $674,930 in 2017 to $718,915 in 2018, with prices expected to decrease by three per cent in 2019. “The drop in sales in key markets across British Columbia can be partially attributed to Canadians’ increasing difficulty in getting an affordable mortgage in the region,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. Canadians on the move: Not an exodus, but the re-location trend across Canadian housing market is real RE/MAX Canada expects average residential prices to rise 4% to 6% in 2021. Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont. This was a trend that was evident in many regions across the country, including North Bay, Kingston, Moncton and Greater Vancouver, among others. This fall, a number of regions including Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Mississauga and Oakville experienced increased demand from buyers looking to purchase homes before the new stress test regulations take effect. Overall, we are very confident in the long-term durability of the market.”. York Region, Ont. Much of the activity in regional markets across Ontario was fuelled by price appreciation in Toronto during the first four months of the year prior to the introduction of the provincial government’s Fair Housing Plan. The 16-point plan introduced a 15 per cent non-resident speculation tax, which slowed demand from overseas buyers in the upper-end of the market. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. Both regions are expected to see average residential prices increase by four and five per cent respectively in 2021. Get more insights and download the infographics: Victoria, BC Nanaimo, BC Vancouver, BC North Vancouver, BC West Vancouver, BC Tri-City (Greater Vancouver), BC  Fraser Valley, BC Kelowna, BC Edmonton, AB Calgary, AB Saskatoon, SK Regina, SK Winnipeg, MB. 2021 Canadian Housing Market Forecast. According to the survey, 44 per cent of Canadians would like a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard. This is compared to the 3.7 per cent increase that was predicted in late 2019. The story of Canadian real estate is one of shifting economic fortunes and changing real estate trends. Moody’s: Canadian Real Estate Prices Drop 8-30%. According to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers suggest that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6 per cent during the remainder of the year. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 35.2% year-over-year (y-o-y). Heading into fall, 50 per cent of RE/MAX brokers and agents surveyed anticipate a modest increase in average residential sale prices. In Toronto, activity was slower than usual this spring as buyers did not have any urgency to transact during the pandemic. RE/MAX Canada is anticipating healthy housing price growth in 2021, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. The policy changes as a whole curtailed activity significantly for single-family detached homes throughout the GTA in the short-term. Cities such as Ottawa and Windsor are seller’s markets, showing substantial increases in average residential sale price at 11.7 and 11 per cent, respectively. • Increased consumer confidence could be a key factor affecting the housing market in 2020 • 51% of Canadians are considering a home purchase in the next five years, up from 36% at the same time last year • Only two in 10 Canadians say that the mortgage stress test negatively affected their ability to purchase a home in 2019. RE/MAX is calling for a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. A recent Leger survey conducted by RE/MAX found that more than half (51 per cent) of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years, especially those under the age of 45. Regina also saw the number of properties sold increase by more than five per cent year-over-year, despite being one of the few markets where the effects of the mortgage stress test are still being felt. Prices in the real estate market can change very quickly depending on the regulations, interest rates, consumer preferences and many more. Vancouver real estate agent David Hutchinson is still showing properties during the pandemic, but he's had to make adjustments. Economic growth is also solid: the Conference Board of Canada is predicting growth of 2.4% in both 2019 and 2020. Fifty-one per cent of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years. When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56 per cent of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canada’s real estate market are still likely to buy or sell. The increase is attributed to consumers’ adjustment to the mortgage stress test and increased purchasing power. The number of properties sold also increased by five per cent, from 8,139 in 2018 to 8,539 in 2019. Oakville, Ont. Ontario In Toronto, rising interest rates and the mortgage stress test were the two major factors affecting market activity this past year, with average sale prices dropping by four per cent from $822,572 in 2017 to $789,181 in 2018, and unit sales down by 16 per cent. Even experts were stumped on what would happen to the Canadian housing market and what trends they would expect to … When it comes to where Canadians would prefer to live – urban, suburban or rural – they are evenly split, with roughly three in 10 preferring to live in each area. Edmonton’s housing market quickly bounced back to pre-COVID levels in June, while Saskatoon experienced its busiest June in years; this momentum is anticipated to continue into the fall market, with  RE/MAX brokers and agents estimating a three-per-cent increase in average residential sale prices for the remainder of the year. In fact, many suburban markets across the country have been heavily impacted by out-of-town buyers, a segment that is expected to drive market activity in 2021. Regional housing market insights: Victoria, BC Nanaimo, BC Vancouver, BC Whistler, BC Kelowna, BC Edmonton, AB Calgary, AB Saskatoon, SK Regina, SK Winnipeg, MB. Ontario real estate is one of the more vulnerable markets, due to sky high price increases over the past few years. “This has sparked unprecedented sales this year in suburban and rural parts of Canada and we expect this trend to continue in 2021.”. “The situation created by the introduction of the mortgage stress test this year, as well as continually increasing interest rates, means more Canadians will be priced out of the market. An analysis of the latest data and developments in Canada’s housing market. 2021 PREDICTION #1: Canadian real estate prices will go down Opinion is split on where prices are headed in hot housing markets like the greater Toronto and Vancouver areas, and for the country at large, which saw a booming summer real estate market carry its momentum into fall. Due to the stress test and increasing interest rates, we are seeing more buyers in traditionally affordable regions in Ontario unable to enter the market,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. Try Affordability Crisis: RE/MAX Executive. Many buyers put their plans on hold at the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns, but they returned to the market quickly to make up for lost time. balcony, pool etc. Most individual markets surveyed across Canada experienced moderate price increases year-over-year from 2018 to 2019. Meanwhile in Calgary, the market is expected to stay relatively flat in 2019 due to its reliance on the oil and gas industry, and further real estate hindrances like the mortgage stress test. Hamilton-Burlington, Ont. Analysis of national and provincial trends in housing affordability and developments in major metropolitan housing The average residential sale price increased 13 per cent in Greater Vancouver to approximately $1,020,300 and rose 17 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to an estimated $725,857. In lockstep with the Leger survey revealing increased consumer interest in relocating to rural areas, as well as 48 per cent of Canadians wanting to living closer to green space, RE/MAX brokers and agents have reported that many buyers in Toronto and Vancouver, who are now working remotely, have expressed interest in regions like Muskoka and Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Whistler, in search of more space and access to nature. “The drop in sales in key markets across British Columbia can be partially attributed to Canadians’ increasing difficulty in getting an affordable mortgage in the region,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. Thirty-six per cent of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years. Canadian Real Estate Market Forecast Just like the US housing market, the real estate market in Canada showed remarkable strength in 2020. The Canadian economy witnessed significant improvement in 2019, with a GDP growth of nearly 3.7%. Move-up and move-over buyers are also impacting luxury segments in the province. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on trend analysis and market knowledge. While average residential sale prices for all properties increased by two per cent, from $1,030,829 in 2017 to $1,049,362 in 2018, the number of sales dropped by 30 per cent. The Canadian real estate market forecast for commercial and industrial property is that rental prices will continue to rise sharply as retailers are trying to find high-quality spaces for facilitating e-commerce. This is being attributed to high demand and low supply, coupled with shifting home-buying trends toward local liveability factors such as more space, larger yards and closer proximity to amenities like parks. This is compared to the earlier prediction by RE/MAX brokers and agents of +3.7% at the start of the year. In order to find a balance between the home features they’re looking for and affordability, many buyers are continuing to look at real estate markets outside of the country’s largest urban centres. North Bay, Ont. In Edmonton, sales rose by an estimated five per cent year-over-year, from $357,916 to $375,788 in 2017, with a variety of new infrastructure projects, including construction on the Valley Line expansion of the LRT system, expected to contribute to increased activity in the coming years. Get more insights and download the infographics: Windsor, Ont. Royal LePage: Canadian home prices forecast to rise 5.5% by the end of 2021 as low inventory and unmet demand set to fuel price increases. This is compared to their responses in May, which found that 58 per cent were less confident in their housing market, alluding to growing optimism in the market as COVID-19 lockdown restrictions continue to ease across the country. Although demand remains high in both urban centres, limited inventory in the freehold market, the new 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax in Vancouver and the recent tightening of mortgage rules by the federal government are expected to soften market activity in the short term. Niagara Region, Ont. Canadian housing prices anticipated to increase by 4.6% in the third and fourth quarter according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Affordability continues to attract many buyers in the region, most of whom are buying single family homes. In Greater Vancouver, suburban neighbourhoods such as Pitt Meadows, Ladner and Maple Ridge are expected to be top neighbourhoods next year due to affordability and easy access to more outdoor space. New CMHC report says Canadian housing market could see a 14% plunge (The Star, Jan 21) These are Canada's fastest growing communities as cities see record exodus (CTV, Jan 19) Toronto rent was down 20.4 per cent in December while real estate sales were way up (NOW, Jan 19) At the same time, the region’s multi family and condo market is being driven by retirees. Liveability continues to be important to Canadians, with more than half wanting to live closer to green spaces, work and better access to public amenities. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. Canadian Housing Reports. The luxury market in Edmonton continues to be strong, with seemingly no impact felt by the pandemic. While average residential sale prices for all properties increased by two per cent, from $1,030,829 in 2017 to $1,049,362 in 2018, the number of sales dropped by 30 per cent. 32% of Canadians no longer want to live in urban centres, opting for rural or suburban communities instead. Get more insights and download the infographics: Fredericton, NB Saint John, NB Moncton, NB Halifax, NS Charlottetown, PEI St. John’s, Newfoundland. Moody’s economists forecasted a range that sees declines in all scenarios. Much like the rest of the country, the majority of Atlantic Canada is a sellers’ market, which is anticipated to continue next year. When it comes to recreational property markets in Canada, the regions surveyed for the report experienced a slight decrease in sales activity in March, similar to most major cities in Canada; however, similar to other markets, this picked up quickly by May. “This is particularly true for first-time buyers and single Millennials, as evident in cities like Brampton, Kingston and Durham. The 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax is expected to slow this trend somewhat, as price appreciation declines in Vancouver have resulted in some potential sellers staying in the Lower Mainland. This is down from 48 per cent at the same time last year. January marked a hot start to 2021 as record-lowmortgage ratesand minimal inventory across Canada led to another all-time-high for average sold prices of homes across Canada. Brampton, Ont. The 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. Agents sold a record-breaking 10,563 homes in October, a 25-per-cent increase … Healthy price increases are expected next year, with the RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report estimating a 3.7 per-cent increase in the average residential sale price. This was likely due to travel restrictions brought on by the pandemic. And forecasts for 2021 reflect a continued trend of high prices driven by low mortgage… If the measures currently in place across the country are lifted before the end of the second quarter, Royal LePage is forecasting that overall prices for Canadian homes will end 2020 relatively flat, with the aggregate value up 1% year-over-year to $653,800. Durham Region, Ont. “The classically hot spring market that was pushed to the summer months due to the COVID-19 pandemic created a surprisingly strong market across Canada and across all market segments,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada.